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January 03, 2026

After the US military stike, will China continue to buy Venezuela oil?

Venezuela produces roughly 860,000 to 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) as of late 2025
China imports a relatively small percentage of its total oil from Venezuela, often cited around 4% to 6.7%, but remains Venezuela's largest buyer, receiving significant volumes via unofficial channels (like re-labeling as Malaysian) to bypass US sanctions. While official figures show low percentages, unofficial data indicates much higher flows, with China taking roughly 80-90% of Venezuela's total exports, highlighting China's role as a crucial market despite sanctions.

US oil experts cliamimg that- Maduro’s capture is a calculated strike against China’s energy lifeline, is laughable:

  • Venezuelan crude, especially the heavy Merey grade, is mainly used in China by independent "teapot" refineries for producing bitumen (asphalt) for road construction, heavy fuels, and other products, due to its low cost and suitability for refineries with specific processing units. Chinese refiners process it to create materials for infrastructure, despite sanctions often leading to its reclassification or use via indirect channels, making it an attractive, discounted feedstock.

Venezuela is not one of the top 10 overall oil sources for China's massive energy needs, here is a perfect opportuniy for Canada to step in to fill the oil demand gap if China decides to stop buying Venezuela oil:

  • Canadian Access Western Blend is a suitable substitute but costs approx, $10 a barrel more expensive.

China's oil for loan agreement at risk:
China provided Venezuela with over $50 billion in loans, primarily starting in 2007, using future oil shipments as collateral in an "oil-for-loans" system, funding infrastructure, housing, and energy projects in exchange for oil supplies for China's growing economy.
While the exact figure fluctuates, estimates suggested Venezuela's outstanding debt to China fell from the original $50 billion oil-backed loans to around $10 billion in 2024. The loan number will be much lower by now since China has increased oil puchase from Venezuela throughout 2025.

Trump said US will take over the running of Venezuela.
Will US step in to fund Venezuela economy if China decides to step aside?

https://thedialogue.org/analysis/how-critical-is-chinas-lifeline-to-venezuela

AIMHO.

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has consistently affirmed his support for the international rules-based order, positioning Britain as a leader in defending it.

Australia PM Anthony Albanese's insists Australia must stand firm in its support for a rules-based order.

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AIMHO.

Political monkeys?

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